Considerations Informing Climate-Change Policy – Part VI

A lie will travel around the world while the truth is pulling on its boots…Mark Twain

Conclusions:  Science is Pulling on its Boots

Whether or not there is anthropogenic climate change today, is a science question which has not yet been determined.  To say that it is politically proven is as much a lie as Michael Mann’s “hockey stick graph”.  The media are unlikely to invest time and money learning how complex and fruitless is the quest of anthropogenic climate warming.  At the same time, as the anthropogenic-crowd is stymied in providing a satisfactory explanation of their on-going failure there is a known, naturally-occurring, increasing-climate warming today.  It is well within the expected limits of natural variation for the approximately one-hundred seventy years it has been progressing.  Today, warming since the year 1850 is estimated as 0.8oC. From 1850 an average natural climate warming cycle will take seven-hundred fifty years, so the warming cycle is presently getting close to twenty-five percent complete.  The average amount of warming for completion of an average cycle is about 2.0oC.  That is puts us about forty percent of the expected total increase.  That is more than a linear amount of change, but linearity of climate change has never been posited or observed.  It generally has some higher or lower periods of change.  

Scientists predicting anthropogenic climate change are still empty-handed in their quest.  Until they posit a theory and are able to make reasonably reliable forecasts to test it, they remain empty-handed.  Still, even that will not be a final victory until the model can show how much actual climate warming is due to anthropogenic change as opposed to natural variation.  

Consider something else.  Scientists have reconstructed Earth’s temperature for the last 500 million years. This reconstruction showed major global warming-cooling cycles every 135 million years!  Cosmic rays striking Earth appear to cycle up and down over 135 million years as our solar system passes through one of the bright arms of the Milky Way.  These arms have intense levels of cosmic rays that tend to cool the Earth by stimulating the formation of those low-level clouds that reflect solar radiance back into space.  The “appearance” is based the solar system moving through space.

Finally, there is very little correlation between Earth’s climate and CO2 over the 500 million years. CO2 levels have been as much as 18 times higher than today during the Veizer warm temperature record, and were 10 times higher than today during the Ordovician glacial period – about 440 million years ago.  An explanation of CO2 being both a forcer of warm and cold temperatures needs to be found. Otherwise this suggests CO2 is not likely to be the principle climate driver.  

These conclusions inform me that putting billions of taxpayer dollars into looking for the El Dorado of climate change science, and needlessly informing other wasteful dollars of the American economy to prevent anthropogenic climate change would be better spent on other subjects, such as improving the electric power grid, whatever the electricity source,                                                                                             January 23, 2020